Electoral College Reckoner

Posted on 2012-11-03 by M. Eric Carr

The US Presidential election system is not the most straightforward thing in the world. The President is not directly elected by popular vote, but is instead elected by the members of the Electoral College. These members are chosen by the individual states, with each state receiving as many electors as it has members of Congress. Most states select their electors on a winner-takes-all basis. Maine and Nebraska use a split system whereby some electors are determined by popular vote and others are determined by the popular vote winner in specific electoral districts.

Since there are five hundred thirty eight members in the Electoral College and a clear majority is needed, two hundred seventy electoral votes are needed for a victory. This has various effects on the Presidential campaigns — mostly involving candidates spending a lot of time and money courting votes in large “swing states” (states with a large number of electors where the outcome is uncertain.)

Various pollsters and pundits have tried to predict the outcome of the election. Nate Silver’s “Five thirty eight” blog has come up with an estimate of the odds of each candidate winning each state’s electoral votes (including Congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska.) From this, it’s possible to predict the outcome of the election, using Monte Carlo analysis.

Using Five Thirty Eight’s data (text file contains district abbreviation, odds of a Democratic victory in that district, and its number of electors for this year), I ran the simulated 2012 Presidential election (FreeBASIC code) one billion times. (Hey, if it’s worth doing, it’s worth overdoing!)

The results are encouraging for a secular, liberal/libertarian geek like me:

Runs: 1,000,000,000
Democratic victories: 960,093,075
Electoral College ties: 2,608,646
Republican victories: 37,298,279
Democratic victory %: 96.01%
Electoral College tie %: 0.26%
Republican victory %: 3.73%

Here’s a histogram of the relative probability of each number of electoral college votes for President Obama. (Anything 270 or greater is a Democratic victory.)

A histogram of the projected probabilities of the Electoral College outcomes, according to the simulation. (Click for larger.)

I hope Mr. Silver’s analysis is correct. We really don’t need another four years of corporate cronyism and Bible-thumping anti-intellectualism.

Posted in BASIC, Coding, Current Events, Digital Citizenship, Math, Science | Leave a comment

PIC I2C Library

Posted on 2012-10-21 by M. Eric Carr

Having spent the better part of the day writing I2C routines for the PIC16F887 from scratch (because the supplied Hi-Tech libraries didn’t seem to work), I figured I might as well package them up into a library for future use, available here.  (These were written for a PIC16F887 using Hi-Tech C, but they should be fairly easy to port to any other platform with a standard C compiler.)

Usage is fairly straightforward:

I2C_ReadRegister(char deviceAddress, char registerAddress);

I2C_WriteRegister(char deviceAddress, char registerAddress, char Data);

The routines are simple and straightforward: single-master-only and single-byte-transaction-only. I may get ambitious enough to update them later on…

I consider these routines to be either late alpha or early beta at this point (meaning that they seem quite reliable so far, and most of the major bugs appear to have been squashed.) Specifically, they have been tested with Sparkfun’s MMA8452Q Triple-Axis Accelerometer. If you notice any bugs or have suggestions for improvements, I’d appreciate a heads-up.

“Share and enjoy!”*

Posted in C, Coding, Digital, PIC Microcontrollers, Resources | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Euclidean Construction

Posted on 2012-10-12 by M. Eric Carr

The other day, I had an unusual request at work. (Actually, unusual requests aren’t really that unusual around here, which is one reason why my job is generally pretty cool.) Part holders were needed for ultrasonic calibration blocks — and these blocks had a strange, nonlinear shape.

The calibration block in question. (Click for larger.)

Using calipers, I determined that the block was about 25.4mm (one inch) thick — and therefore, was probably calibrated in inches. The length of the top (hypotenuse?) measured right about three inches across, so this seemed to confirm the idea.

How to measure the diameter of the semicircles, though, since only a small arc of each was available? High-school geometry, and a few assumptions, provided the answer. Both arcs looked to intersect the top at a 90-degree angle, meaning that the center of each arc had to be somewhere along that line. For the larger arc, a chord can be constructed between the two endpoints. Taking the perpendicular bisector of this arc (with a compass and straightedge) provides a bisector of the arc. The intersection of this line with the top of the piece locates the center of the circle. It turned out to have a radius of two inches, and its center turned out to also be the center of the smaller arc (with a radius of one inch).

The final question was where to begin and end the arcs. Measuring the distance across the larger arc resulted in a length of very nearly two inches. Since this made sense (calibration blocks normally use nice round number measurements like this), I decided to treat this as exact. Using a virtual compass, I drew a third circle with radius two inches to locate the end point of the larger arc. Finally, I reasoned that the line segment from this point was tangent to the smaller circle, and added it accordingly.

The construction for the calibration block shape in Google SketchUp. (Click for larger.)

Now that the measurements were known, it was fairly straightforward to design a holder jig in Google Sketchup and send it to our 3D printer. Score one for high-school geometry!

A Google SketchUp rendering of the holder. (Click for larger.)

Posted in Design, Drexel, Math, Reverse Engineering | Leave a comment

Sources for parts

Posted on 2012-09-28 by M. Eric Carr

Electronics is a fascinating hobby — but like most hobbies, it often requires parts and tools that can’t always be found at the local Wal-Mart or Target. Here, listed in rough order of preference, are a few of my favorite sources for electronics parts, development boards, modules, and tools, along with a description of the pros and cons of each.

Sparkfun
Sparkfun is pretty much my go-to source for electronics components, except bulk parts. Although their prices aren’t always as rock-bottom as some other sources, they always have a fascinating selection of components at reasonable prices, most of which are fairly well-documented and easy to integrate into projects. Sparkfun caters to electronics hobbyists, and they are deservedly known for their good selection of breakout boards, allowing hobbyists to easily use modern surface-mount components in standard 0.1″ spacing breadboards. In short, they “get” DIY electronics.
Adafruit
Literally started in her MIT dorm room by electronics guru Limor (“Lady Ada”) Fried, Adafruit Industries is not only a good source for components and dev boards, but an innovator, as well. Limor and her fellow engineers at Adafruit emphasize electronics education and DIY supplies, tools, and tutorials. Their projects and “merit badges” provide a good, fun way to learn more about electronics.
Digi-Key
Digi-Key is more of an industrial electronics supply house than a hobbyist-centric vendor. They’re known for their excellent selection, fast, reliable shipping, decent prices, and good documentation (datasheets and photos) for most parts that they stock. For large orders of industry-standard parts, they tend to be less expensive than hobbyist stores — although the reverse can be true with dev boards etc. If I needed a thousand 555 timer chips in SOIC form factor by tomorrow afternoon, Digi-Key would be where I’d look first.
Microchip
Microchip Direct is both my first stop for information on PIC microcontrollers, as well as the best place to get PICs quickly and inexpensively. Their prices are typically even better than their distributors’, and they’re known for their cheap and relatively fast shipping from their factory in Thailand. If you need a couple hundred 12F683s by next week, they can make that happen. They also stock other Microchip products, such as serial EEPROMs. Microchip also has a good sample program, providing sample quantities of many parts for a small handling fee or for free.
Jameco
Jameco is a discount electronics parts provider. They tend to have nearly as good a selection as Digi-Key or Mouser, but often with slightly lower prices. In my experience, they offer nearly as fast service as Digi-Key with a good selection. For a large order, they’re one of a few sites I keep in mind for price comparison. It’s not unusual to be able to save a few percent on an order vs. other suppliers, while still remaining confident that your order will be processed correctly and efficiently.
MPJA
MPJA is a fun site to browse; it reminds me of shopping at places like Grand Junquetion in Virginia Beach, years ago. MPJA stocks a few basic staples (their prices on 830-hole breadboards and jumper wire kits are outstanding), but apparently specializes in whatever their buyers found a great deal on recently. I’ve picked up toy motor assemblies for a dollar or two, 16×2 LCD displays for a few bucks, and an assortment of interesting, inexpensive tools. What you see on their site is what you get; I shop there periodically to find cool things I didn’t know I needed.
Radio Shack
Years ago, Radio Shack was THE local electronics store, selling their 150-in-one and similar electronics kits as well as cool gear like the PC-6 pocket computer. As a hobbyist store, they basically sat the 1990s and early 2000s out, carrying fewer and fewer parts and tools. Recently, though, they’ve begun to rejoin the DIY electronics movement, carrying better tools as well as Arduinos and electronics project kits. They’re also still just about the only way to get a 2N3904 transistor RIGHT NOW when FedEx Overnight is just too slow. It’s a pity their prices on components are so high.
Digilent
Digilent makes interesting, useful, and relatively inexpensive development boards for Xilinx FPGAs as well as various microcontrollers. Some of their innovations, such as their PMOD accessory modules, make prototyping with their boards much easier. In addition to the hardware, Digilent provides example source code for many applications.
eBay
Buying components on eBay is an art form, but the cost savings can be spectacular. Standard components such as LCD text displays can be found at significant discounts. If you need parts in a timely manner, though, you may want to filter by location; parts from suppliers in China can take several weeks to reach the US and clear customs.
Mouser
Mouser is another well-regarded electronics industry supply house. Their site is relatively easy to navigate, and once you drill down to the product category you want, they have a good filtering system to help you narrow their selection down to the best part.
Futurlec
Futurlec is a deep-discount Chinese supplier. They often have impressively low prices on components and tools, including some innovative ones (like an RGB LED array) that you might not see elsewhere. Shipping can take several weeks, though.
eDooMart
eDooMart often has insanely low prices on components, boards, and tools — for example, Bluetooth OBD-II modules for US$20. As is the case with many Chinese vendors, though, their website is sometimes hard to navigate and shipping to the US can be quite slow, sometimes taking a month or more for products to arrive. For such low prices, though, it can be worth it.

Disclaimer: I am not affiliated with any of these vendors, except as an occasional customer.

Posted in Analog, Components, Digital, Electronics, Resources, Reviews, Tools | Leave a comment